Business Analytical Methods and Models

Business analytics involves something from simple reports to the most advanced optimization techniques, such as methods for finding the best course of action. This is generally comprised in three broad categories : descriptive analytics, predictive analytics, and prescriptive analytics.

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Descriptive Analytics

Descriptive analytics encompasses the set of techniques that describes what has happened in the past. Examples are data queries, reports, descriptive statistics, data visualization including data dashboards, some data-mining techniques, and basic what-if spreadsheet models.

A data query is a request for information with certain characteristics from a database. For example, a query to a Airline’s database might be for all records of flights to a particular designation during the month of March. This query provides descriptive information about these flights: the number of Passengers, the date each trip, and so on. A report summarizing relevant historical information for management might be conveyed by the use of descriptive statistics such as means, measures of variation, etc. and data visualization tools such as tables, charts, and maps. These simple descriptive statistics and data visualization techniques can be used to find patterns or relationships in a large database.

Data dashboards are collections of tables, charts, maps, and summary statistics that are updated as new data become available. Dashboards are used to help management monitor specific aspects of the company’s performance related to their decision-making responsibilities. For corporate-level managers, daily data dashboards might summarize sales by region, current inventory levels, and other company-wide metrics; front-line managers may view dashboards that contain metrics related to staffing levels, local inventory levels, and short-term sales forecasts.

Predictive Analytics

Predictive analytics consists of techniques that use models constructed from past data to predict the future or ascertain the impact of one variable on another. For example, past data on product sales may be used to construct a mathematical model to predict future sales, which can factor in the product’s growth trajectory and seasonality based on past patterns. A packaged food manufacturer may use point-of-sale scanner data from retail outlets to help in estimating the lift in unit sales due to coupons or sales events. Survey data and past purchase behavior may be used to help predict the market share of a new product. All of these are applications of predictive analytics.

Linear regression, time series analysis, some data-mining techniques, and simulation, often referred to as risk analysis, all fall under the banner of predictive analytics. We discuss all of these techniques in greater detail later in this text. Data mining, techniques used to find patterns or relationships among elements of the data in a large database, is often used in predictive analytics. For example, a large grocery store chain might be interested in developing a new targeted marketing campaign that offers a discount coupon on potato chips. By studying historical point-of-sale data, the store may be able to use data mining to predict which customers are the most likely to respond to an offer on discounted chips by purchasing higher-margin items such as beer or soft drinks in addition to the chips, thus increasing the store’s overall revenue. Simulation involves the use of probability and statistics to construct a computer model to study the impact of uncertainty on a decision. For example, banks often use simulation to model investment and default risk in order to stress test financial models. Simulation is also often used in the pharmaceutical industry to assess the risk of introducing a new drug. 

Prescriptive Analytics

Prescriptive analytics differ from descriptive or predictive analytics in that prescriptive analytics indicate a best course of action to take; that is, the output of a prescriptive model is a best decision. The airline industry’s use of revenue management is an example of a prescriptive analytics. Airlines use past purchasing data as inputs into a model that recommends the best pricing strategy across all flights for maximizing revenue. Other examples of prescriptive analytics are portfolio models in finance, supply network design models in operations, and price markdown models in retailing. 

Another type of modeling in the prescriptive analytics category is simulation optimization, which combines the use of probability and statistics to model uncertainty with optimization techniques to find good decisions in highly complex and highly uncertain settings. Finally, the techniques of decision analysis can be used to develop an optimal strategy when a decision maker is faced with several decision alternatives and an uncertain set of future events. Decision analysis also employs utility theory, which assigns values to outcomes based on the decision maker’s attitude toward risk, loss, and other factors.

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How to fix 500 Internal server Error in YouTube and other sites?

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Earlier this morning when I am accessing my YouTube channel's feature my chrome browser returned me "500 server error " and stating expert monkeys are sent to fix the problems with a monkey picture in right side of the window. This looks really funny. But trust me its annoying for many users out there, just like for me. so let me explain you how to fix this error.

What doesn't work?

Let me first explain you few tweaks that I tried which actually doesn't work for me:

1. Restarted my Chrome browser

2. Used different internet browser i.e. Internet explorer , Still doesn't work

3. Cleared my Cache and History in chrome browser, Nope doesn't help me either!!

4. Restarted my laptop. Still the monkeys are working !!

So, All the above actions doesn't end up fixing the error and I believe the monkey are confused to fix! Any ways Jokes apart. 

Fix is here  

Actually the fix is very simple. Just clear your YouTube cookies in chrome. Here are the steps to clear cookies..

1. Go to "Settings" and search "Cookie"

2. Select "Content settings"

3. Select "All cookies and site data"

4. Search "YouTube" and delete both the content usins 'x' sign from the results

That's it . The error is fixed and monkeys are gone. Enjoy your time in youtube now. See you again in another post.

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VoLTE explained in a nutshell

What is VoLTE ?

VoLTE stands for voice over LTE. It voice calls over a 4G LTE network, rather than the 2G or 3G connections which are usually used. This result in high quality of voice calls and better connectivity. VoLTE has up to three times more voice and data capacity than 3G and up to six times more than 2G networks.In India Reliance Jio announced commercial launch of 100% VoLTE service without 2G/3G based services in India on 5th Sep 2016. 

Benefits of VoLTE

The 4G networks brings following advantage to the mobile customers:

• Superior call quality
• Improved coverage and connectivity
• Better battery life
• Quality Video calling
• Simultaneous Voice and Data usage

What are the downsides?

Like all technology 4G / LTE has some downsides too

• Not Every Phone Supports VoLTE
• Network coverage
• Health hazard - health hazards from 4G / LTE network

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What are type I and type II errors?

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Testing  of hypothesis is widespread not only in statistics, but also in the natural and social sciences. When we do a hypothesis test, two types of errors are possible these errors are termed as experimental errors. They are Type-I or Type-II errors. It is important to understand both these effects in order to  manage error and report it, for the right interpretation of conclusion from a experiment.

Decision made	Null Hypothesis is actually
	True	False
Reject Null	Type I error	Correct rejection
Fail to reject Null	Correct decision	Type II error

Type I errors occurs when we reject a true null hypothesis - 

The Type I error occurs when a the null hypothesis (H0) is rejected in favor of the research hypothesis (H1), when in reality the 'null' is correct. Type I errors are equivalent to false positives. For example, suppose there is a test that is used to detect a disease in a person. If a Type I error occurs in the test, it means that the test will say the person is suffering from that disease even though he is healthy. Type I errors can be controlled. The value of alpha, which is related to the level of significance that we selected has a direct bearing on type I errors. Alpha is the maximum probability that we have a type I error. For a 95% confidence level, the value of alpha is 0.05. This means that there is a 5% probability that we will reject a true null hypothesis. 

Type II errors happen when we fail to reject a false null hypothesis -

Type II error occurs when we do not reject a null hypothesis that is false. It is equivalent to false negatives.  From the above said example of a medical test for a disease, if a Type-II error occurs, then it means that the test will not detect the disease in the person even though he is actually suffering from it.The probability of a type II error is given by the Greek letter beta. This number is related to the power or sensitivity of the hypothesis test, denoted by 1 – beta.

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What is wage - price spiral? A correlation between Wage and Price

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Wages and prices change every day. If the demand for smartphones rises at the same time that demand for laptops falls, we would expect to see a rise in the price of smartphones and a fall in the price of laptops. Wages in the smart phone industry would tend to increase, and wages in the laptop manufacturing industry would tend to fall. Sometimes, we see wages and prices in all industries rising or falling together. For example, prices for steel, automobiles, food, and fuel may all rise together. Why? Wages and prices will all tend to increase together during booms when GDP exceeds its full-employment level or potential output. Wages and prices will fall together during periods of recessions when GDP falls below full employment or potential output.

If the economy is producing at a level above full employment, firms will find it increasingly difficult to hire and retain workers, and unemployment will be below its natural rate. Workers will find it easy to get and change jobs. To attract workers and prevent them from leaving, firms will raise their wages. As one firm raises its wage, other firms will have to raise their wages even higher to attract the workers that remain. Wages are the largest cost of production for most firms. Consequently, as labor costs increase, firms have no choice but to increase the prices of their products. However, as prices rise, workers need higher nominal wages to maintain their real wages. This is an illustration of the real-nominal principle. This process by which rising wages cause higher prices and higher prices feed higher wages is known as a wage–price spiral . It occurs when the economy is producing at a level of output that exceeds its potential. When the economy is producing below full employment or potential output, the process works in reverse. Unemployment will exceed the natural rate. Firms will find it easy to hire and retain workers, and they can offer workers less. As all firms cut wages, the average level of wages in the economy falls. As we have said, wages are the largest component of firms’ costs. So, when wages fall, prices start to fall, too. In this case, the wage–price spiral works in reverse.

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Health hazards from 4G / LTE mobile network

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Just months before 3G mobile networks were most popular among the mobile users. But that is now giving up its grip away to the much more advanced, 4G/LTE network which is tremendously powerful and featuring faster bandwidth, this network provides lightning-fast service to mobile Internet users. However, just like everything else, this too has its own downsides. The latest allegation is that 4G technology is several times more of a health hazard than any of its predecessors. Mobile transmission towers emit microwave (radio frequency) radiations, which are proven to be harmful to a our health. Studies have reveled this exposure is harmful to the brains that even reuslts to Alzheimer and brain cancer which is more worrying to any person. Considerable evidence links long-term exposure to radiation to the possibility of sperm damage, DNA mutation, increase in glucose in the brain, genetic stress, immune system dysfunction, effect on unborn children, etc. these health hazards are not just limited to the humans, ultimately no living being escapes the influence of unnatural radiation on the cell structures of the body.

Why is 4G network bad for health?

4G technology uses more bandwidth than 2G/3G networks, which results more exposure to radiation. Handset makers manufacture smartphones quipping with a series of antennae in one handset capable of receiving the full bandwidth power of 4G networks. According to health experts, this further intensifies the risk of being exposed to more radiation. This is believed to emit much more radiation than before, which could in turn cause severe health issues at a later time.

What should we do?

Rise in these health hazards we are in need to take actions to save our-self from the danger. There are only a handful of European countries that take measures to protect their citizens, by informing them and enforcing mandatory warning labels on the packaging of mobile apparatuses. In France it is forbidden for children under 15 years of age to use GSM. The European Council has passed the resolution wherein they advise a complete restriction of mobile phones and wireless internet in schools. 

• Avoid as much as possible making calls with your mobile phone.
• Turn off your WiFi, Bluetooth and 3G/4G mobile data when not in use and keep your mobile away from your body as much as possible.
• Switch off, via both hardware and software, Bluetooth and WiFi on your computers, printers and other wireless devices and use only cables. If this is not possible, make sure that at least you switch off your WiFi router and all wireless transmitters at night.
• Make sure the Bluetooth in your car is completely off and Don't use a Bluetooth receiver in your ear!
• If you have school age children, ask the school to limit /prohibit /abolish WiFi. There is now plenty of evidence that its use is ill advised. 
• Do not use the microwave or at least ensure that you are more than 2.5 meters away from it, and leave no children in the vicinity of this appliance.
• The most important location, your bed! A person, when sleeping, is estimated to be 200 to 400 times more sensitive to radiation or other stimuli. Make sure your bed and your children’s beds have no electrical sources in the vicinity. In other words: no electric blanket, no waterbed heating, no adjustable bed by means of electric motors (unplug), and no electrically powered clock radio. Put your mobile phone in another room, or even better switch it off. If necessary, purchase a small battery driven alarm clock.

Symptoms of radiation exposure

Some symptoms of radiation exposure are:

• Chronic fatigue
• Hyperactivity
• Waking up between 3:00 a.m. and 6:00 a.m.
• After intense dreams: teeth grinding or tossing
• Sweating without being really warm, especially at night
• "Sleeping" or tingling hands and feet
• Cramps in the feet or calves (can also be magnesium deficiency)
• Stiffness or stiff legs when standing
• Urge to urinate with little urine produced
• Hyperventilation
• Shortness of breath
• Palpitations
• Cramped feeling that radiates from chest to shoulders and jaw
• High blood pressure
• Rigid (usually) left shoulder
• A tingling sensation in stomach and chest

Natural remedies for radiation exposure

Consuming foods that contains anyof the following components will help in reducing the radiation exposure

• Nascent Iodine
• Potassium Orotate
• Calcium and Magnesium
• Dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO)
• Zeolites
• Other clays
• Activated Charcoal
• Papain
• Bee Pollen
• Beets
• Cold-pressed Organic Vegetable Oils
• Organic Brewers Yeast
• Organic Germanium-132

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What is Inflation and Deflation?

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Inflation 

It denotes a rise in general level of prices. More specifically, inflation refers to the rate of general price increase over a period of one year. For example, if we say that the current inflation is 8 percent, it means the general price level has increased by 8 percent over the last one year. It has been observed that inflation the world over has generally remained in the positive territory, implying that the general price level typically rises. 

Deflation

In other hand, Phenomenon of sustained decline in the price level of goods and services is called deflation. For example, if we say that the current deflation rate is 3.5%, it means that the inflation is -3.5%. In other words, the general price level has fallen by 3.5% over the last one year or specific term period. In 1990's, Japan suffered from deflation for almost a decade of reduction in the purchasing power per unit of money.
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